If you've been keeping an eye on the real estate market lately, you've likely been bombarded with mixed messages. "Now is the worst time to buy," some say, pointing to the dismal market conditions. Others argue the opposite, urging you to "buy now before interest rates soar even higher!"
A glance at the housing section's front page in FORTUNE magazine shows just how polarized these opinions are. On one side, we have the CEO of Fannie Mae painting a grim picture of the current market. On the other, industry expert Barbra Corcoran advocates that it's an opportune time to make a purchase.
This dichotomy became even more personal to me earlier this week during a chat with an acquaintance. "Matt, have you heard the rumors?" they asked. "The word on the street is that we're on the brink of another surge in home prices." It seems everyone has a different read on the situation. Let's dive deeper and examine what's really happening in the real estate market.
My name is Matt Leicht and I’m a realtor here in Sarasota. Every quarter I put a video out like the one above breaking down our real estate numbers and trying to interpret them to teach you what is really going on.
This is not what you hear on Fox News or CNN. This is what is truly happening here in Sarasota from my experiences and the experiences of other experts in our local market.
Let's jump straight into it. As for the realtor who told me we are going to see a huge price jump…. I have no clue what he was referring to. So I honestly didn’t say anything back.
I mean interest rates are going up, inventory is going up…. Those alone are not signs that would show significant price jumps.
So which is it then? Which one of these things is true? Stick around and let’s break it down!
Numbers for Q3 of 2023
But first, let me show you the numbers for quarter 3 of this year.
The median price for a single-family home in Sarasota now is at $572K, while the price for a condo is $392K. To make it a correlation with prices from last year, the increase was only 4%, while the increase in 2022 was 18%.
To understand why the market declined like that, we need to look at the full story, look at the areas and see if they have new constructions or not, see what’s happening around these areas, etc.
Lakewood Ranch vs Palmer Ranch
When we pick these two popular areas in Sarasota, one with a lot of new construction, while the other has very few new homes; to compare and understand, we realize that the market at the moment is totally unpredictable and unstable.
For example, in Lakewood Ranch, the price of a single-family house year-to-year has gone down 2%. But if we look at it further, we realize that these numbers are actually about the previous 6 quarters leading up to today.
Looking at the prices for Q2 of 2022, we had $739K, which went down 10% in Q3 of 2022 due the Hurricane Ian and continued until Q1 of 2023. But when we arrived at Q2 of this year, the increase went up 7% and since then it continued to increase, even though not as much as expected, but either way, a roller coaster going up.
As for single-family prices in Palmer Ranch, prices went up 2%, but let me show you the last 6 quarters to see what’s actually happening.
In Q2 of 2022, the prices were $699K and we can see how they dropped 7% in Q3 and Q4, also because of the hurricane, but at the beginning of the year, we saw an increase of 18%, with prices going up to $717K and the market getting fire. It didn’t maintain though, because in Q2 of 2023, the drop-off was around 6%, and right now prices are sitting at $666K.
Again, another roller coaster, but with this decrease in the last 2 quarters.
What does that mean?
We can’t just look at what the news has been saying. We need to look at the whole story and compare today’s moments with the rest of the year because the market is really facing an unpredictable time.
Buyers are more cautious with rising interest rates, and they’re looking to find a property that they think shows the value for the price. I truly believe that this is one of the reasons we still have thousands of buyers out there, even though they’re not as desperate as they were a few years ago.
But if you’re a seller, my advice is: get out of your head that your house is going to sell in a weekend with multiple offers over the asking price. We’re living in a moment where it takes around 2-3 months to actually sell a house, and you need to put yourself in a better position than the competition to be inside of that average.
The marketing is constantly changing each and every quarter, so if you want to keep up with the changes in Sarasota, you can download for free the complete summary. It covers all the areas and is super easy to look at the one you’re interested in and see what’s happening in the market.
And if you’re thinking about relocating to the area or you want to sell your current home, my team and I would love to be your real estate agency of choice. All you need to do is reach out to me at
Email - info@mattleicht.com
Cell - 941.256.3321
If you want to know more or are curious about what’s coming next in Sarasota, FL, then make sure to subscribe on YouTube to get the new videos with updates, more about marketing prices, and everything about living here.
If you’re a buyer, I recommend you to be patient right now and continue to work on your credit score, continue to keep your current income, or find ways to increase it, just make this search as light as possible. And of course, continue to monitor the market.
Posted by Matt Leicht on
Leave A Comment